A Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake in the Tacoma Fault Zone—A Plausible Scenario for Downtown Vashon

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This is (nearly) the title of the latest USGS fact sheet #3023 summarizing what could happen if a 7.1 earthquake happened along the Tacoma Fault Zone, as recently modeled by scientists.

“The U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating scientists have recently assessed the effects of a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on the Tacoma Fault Zone in Pierce County, Washington. A quake of comparable magnitude struck the southern Puget Sound region about 1,100 years ago, and similar earthquakes are almost certain to occur in the future. The region is now home to hundreds of thousands of people, who would be at risk from the shaking, liquefaction, landsliding, and tsunamis caused by such an earthquake. The modeled effects of this scenario earthquake will help emergency planners and residents of the region prepare for future quakes.” - Report’s Abstract

Some key findings for Vashon:

- unlike the deep 2001 6.8 Nisqually earthquake, this could be shallow (more aftershocks & damaging)

- Max tsunami run-up along the southern edge of Vashon and Maury Islands could be 2-5 meters, occurring maybe 5 minutes after the quake.

- We’re near the center of this hypothetical, but plausible scenario.

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